comparative advantage of export for major horticultural crops in iran and forecast it

abstract iran is among the country that despite the possession of valuable natural resources does not placed in developed countries. expansion of agricultural exports through the development of rural areas, reducing poverty and exclusion zones, in the process of economic development plays a key role. the export of horticultural products can have a positive impact on agricultural development. in this study we estimated comparative advantage of export for thirteen horticultural crops (pistachios, grapes, dates, apples, almonds, walnuts, orange, peach, apricot, cherry, tangerine, kiwi and lemon) in the period from 1340-86 with using information contained in the food and agriculture organization and applying index of rca, rsca and x2 . after that the index changes are forecasted for the fourth time. the result show that we have comparative advantage of export for pistachios and dates while grapes, oranges, peaches and apricots have no comparative advantage for export. also the result of forecast of this indexes in period of 1387-90 show that despite continuing of comparative advantage for pistachios and dates and lack of comparative advantage for grapes, oranges, peaches and apricots.